We publish polls every week, as you've probably noticed.
At the same time, we also have several continuously running political polls: views of Justin Trudeau, views of Pierre Poilievre, and an Ontario party preference poll. There's no end date on these, so we can see changes unfold over time.
The provincial party preference poll has been running since April, and the Poilievre poll has been running since early May. The Trudeau one, however, has been running continuously since April of 2021, making it a much deeper data set to work with.
We gave the Trudeau poll a detailed look in May, tracking events around the convoy occupation, and their effect on the prime minister's popularity.
A note: reader polls lack the scientific rigour of formal opinion polls, though shifts over time are perhaps revealing. As well, readers are in or from Ontario, and largely voting from communities where Village Media has a presence. This means that the province's north is weighted heavily, and large population centres like Ottawa and Hamilton aren't really represented.
First, the Ontario voting intentions poll. I see a mild upward trend for the Liberals - it will be interesting to see what that line does after December, when the party selects a new permanent leader.
Next, Justin Trudeau's approval (or disapproval) which has been fairly steady over time other than an uptick in his very favourable numbers starting in May. That doesn't seem to be a one-off; it has been fairly sustained.
Poilievre's poll, included for completeness, has been going for a much shorter period of time, and doesn't seem to show a trend as of yet:
Another way of looking at the data is to compare both leaders' net approval and disapproval. What we see here is that while Poilievre has a reputation as a polarizing figure, Trudeau's favourable and unfavourable numbers are both higher.
One thing to bear in mind, however, is that some of Trudeau's unfavourable numbers will be from NDP supporters, many of whom will elect NDP MPs, who may well end up keeping a Liberal government in power.
