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Poll: What should happen if federal Tories win plurality? Readers are split

What should we expect from the next federal election? A fair amount of water will have flowed under the bridge by the time that happens, but we can see a few things now.
trudeau poilievre (002)
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other as they gather in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022. A new poll suggest Trudeau's Liberals have gained several points in support this month, after the Conservatives enjoyed a surge when Pierre Poilievre became leader.

What should we expect from the next federal election?

A fair amount of water will have flowed under the bridge by the time that happens, but we can see a few things now. 

The Conservatives are ahead in the polls, but Pierre Poilievre is a divisive, love-him-or-hate-him kind of figure (as is Justin Trudeau) and may have trouble growing his support past a certain ceiling. 

Given the math, one scenario that's been kicked around in the national political media over the last month or so involves a situation where the Conservatives end up with the most seats but fall short of a majority, but the Liberals, with NDP support, have a majority of seats between them and therefore the confidence of the House. 

The Liberals could continue in government in this situation, despite coming No. 2 in the seat count. 

That would be unusual. Would it be legitimate? 

In a reader poll this week, most of you thought the Conservatives should form a government if this happened, though it was fairly evenly divided. 

A north-south divide may be detectable, with readers in northern Ontario - plus Barrie - saying the party with the most seats should govern, and readers in southern Ontario saying that the party with the confidence of the House should govern. There are small sample sizes here, though: we included all communities with 20 or more responses. 

695 of you voted in the poll, which was held this week. 


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Patrick Cain

About the Author: Patrick Cain

Patrick is an online writer and editor in Toronto, focused mostly on data, FOI, maps and visualizations. He has won some awards, been a beat reporter covering digital privacy and cannabis, and started an FOI case that ended in the Supreme Court
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