The large number of U.K. variant cases in York Region — among the highest in the province, and perhaps the country ― could impact any move out of COVID-19 lockdown despite the recent marked decline in cases, according to the region’s medical officer of health.
“We seem to have almost the highest concentration of the variant in Ontario, if not in the country, with the exception of the latest developments in Simcoe-Muskoka,” Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council today.
Up to 51 cases of the faster spreading variant strain, including 15 in York Region and 14 in Toronto, have been confirmed by the province as of yesterday.
Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit is awaiting whole genome sequencing results to confirm 99 cases of the U.K. variant, of which all but two are linked to the devastating outbreak at Roberta Place long-term care home in Barrie.
York Region’s daily cases have continued to decline from a record high of over 500 on Jan. 9 to 133 on Jan. 26, however they spiked to 237 on Jan 27.
The incidence rate “has been dropping nicely”, as well, from a peak of 200 new cases per 100,000 residents in early January to 132 as of Jan. 27.
“We wish that that would continue, unfortunately, we cannot predict what the impact of the variant might be,” Kurji says.
“My efforts at the province (to recommend a move out of lockdown) have been a little tempered after the discovery of the variant in York Region,” he told councillors, ”because I think we need a few more days to see if the variant is multiplying our caseload dramatically.”
To date, there is no lab evidence that the variant cases “have exploded”, he said, however, a reverse in the trend of declining case numbers yesterday is cause for scrutiny.
“It is far too early for us to know if that is due to the variant,” he added.
Of York Region’s 15 confirmed cases, nine were acquired through community transmission, including a Newmarket man in his 30s, and are not linked to travel cases.
“That is what is most worrying,” Dr. Kurji said, “we believe that community transmission is occurring and is ongoing.”
The other cases are linked to two individuals who travelled to the United Kingdom and the Maldives, Kurji said.
While spikes and drops in new daily cases are not uncommon, Kurji said discussions about returning to red zone restrictions should be put on hold to observe what the next few weeks will bring.
“Yesterday’s increase in cases was just a one-day blip, perhaps, but if it’s sustained — because the increase in cases was over 100 in a single day — that would be a very worrying sign,” Kurji said.
“So we’re taking it almost a few days at a time.”
Newmarket Mayor John Taylor suggested the region should be providing feedback to the province about the impact of the stay-at-home order and potentially reducing restrictions.
Kurji suggested the case numbers over the next few days will provide some insight on which recommendation should be made to the province.
“Either the numbers will go down, as we hope that they will, which will then strengthen our case to the province. On the other hand, the numbers may stabilize, in which case we could still make a case to the province given that there are economic interests, as well, as we are getting to incidence levels that are close to where we were when we got introduced into the lockdown zone.
“But if the numbers shoot up, then I think we would have to hold back on any such recommendation to the province at this point in time.”
The public health unit has created a special unit to focus on the variant cases and contact tracing.
While there is evidence in some jurisdictions that the U.K. variant is more severe, there is not enough data in the York Region cases to substantiate that, Kurji added.
The stay-at-home order appears to have had a positive effect on the numbers, he said, however, the drop in numbers can also be attributed to the time-lapse following the surge in cases at the holidays.
The region continues to have a high number of institutional outbreaks, “so we’re not out of the woods at all,” Kurji said.
“But we’re in a much better state now than we were previously with respect to the tools that we have available. And with the rollout of the vaccination program, once the supply situation has been corrected, I’m optimistic that we will be doing well through the rest of the pandemic.”
