While York Region's medical officer of health is still making the argument that the region should remain in the red control zone despite increasing COVID-19 cases, he said the province is leaning toward lockdown.
"We are hanging by our nails onto the red control zone," Dr, Karim Kurji told regional council today.
York Region was able to avoid being placed in lockdown on Nov. 23, joining Toronto and Peel Region, after a letter was sent to Premier Doug Ford.
After being in the red control zone since Nov. 16, the region's COVID-19 incidence rate has risen to 102 residents per 100,000 as of Dec. 3. When Toronto went into lockdown, its incidence rate was 104, Kurji said.
"I spoke with the (Ontario) chief medical officer of health (Dr. David Williams) and some of his senior staff yesterday. And I can tell you those discussions have been difficult ones," Kurji told regional council.
"We are likely to be pushed into the lockdown zone if our arguments get countered, somehow, by other experts."
In consultation with the chief medical officer of health, local medical officers of health, and other health experts, the province is making weekly assessments —typically announced Fridays — about moving public health unit regions to new levels in its reopening framework.
Kurji said there is a compelling and scientifically valid case to be made for keeping York Region out of lockdown.
Although case numbers have increased overall in recent weeks, the seven-day average showed cases were plateauing, until slightly rising in the past few days.
He added that the incidence rate in York Region is still trending lower than that of Toronto and Peel Region, and that York's positivity rate remains unchanged at 5.8 per cent.
One of the province's main considerations for moving a region into the lockdown zone of its COVID-19 reopening framework is hospital capacity, said Kurji.
"The rate of hospitalizations among York Region residents has declined in the past week, with 21 new hospitalizations reported, including one ICU admission," he said, but added the statistics don't include patients from other regions.
"I have regular conversations with our three (hospital) presidents, and my sense is that they are coping, but they are having greater challenges. Sometimes the ICUs are full, or there are issues with staffing levels, but they are coping."
According to Southlake Regional Health Centre's executive vice-president of clinical services, Barbara Steed, the Newmarket hospital is currently operating at 118 per cent of total capacity, with the ICU at 87 per cent of capacity. There are five COVID-19 patients in the ICU, one of whom was transferred from another facility outside York Region.
York Region Public Health commissioned statistical modelling that shows that putting the region in lockdown would have "minimal" positive effect, Kurji said.
It also found that mobility (people going out and associating with one another) of residents has dropped by 20 per cent since the red zone restrictions began Nov. 16.
Kurji said there is more to consider than just the numbers of cases and hospital capacity. For instance, York Region continues to have good public health capacity and is contact tracing 88 per cent of new cases within 24 hours.
"Most experts would give us two incubation periods (28 days) after we have entered a red control zone to have a proper assessment of the impact," Kurji added.
"I have asked the Ministry of Health to keep us in the red zone and monitor us closely because we are now in a so-called 'red-plus zone.' The plus referring to restrictions and enhanced enforcement we have brought to bear."
He highlighted York Region's stepped-up enforcement efforts, including 1,000 inspections over the Black Friday weekend, coordinated by the enforcement task force, as well as more stringent restrictions on retailers and businesses.
Those recommendations may come up against perceptions that York Region has been given unjustified special treatment.
"But I think the ministry will have major challenges with equity, as it relates to other jurisdictions," said Kurji.
One thing that Newmarket Mayor John Taylor said would not help the optics of the situation was a motion put forward by Richmond Hill Regional Councillor Carmine Perrelli.
The motion would have had York Region ask the province to remove the cap of 10 patrons inside restaurants in the red control zone. Taylor blasted the proposal as "out of touch" and likely to hurt the region's efforts to avoid a lockdown.
"There is a very strong case for keeping us in the red zone right now, but our numbers are creeping up a little bit, and we need to watch that closely. My concern is that the motion before us would be received by the province right now as out of touch with the circumstances we find ourselves in, and might even hurt our credibility going forward."
Kurji agreed, saying it was a motion for when York Region's numbers are much lower than they are now. Perrelli and some other councillors argued that restaurants were being crushed by the cap, which should be based on capacity, not an "arbitrary" number.
The motion was defeated 10-5.
