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'Big underestimate': COVID-19 school situation worse than province admits, says Newmarket biostatistician

At the York Communities for Public Education virtual discussion Tuesday night, panellist Ryan Imgrund called for more testing and school closures when cases are confirmed
2020-11-25 education panel ash-1
Tuesday's nights discussion panel was made up of a moderator Shameela Shakeel, NDP education critic Marit Stiles, teacher Karen Ebanks, biostatistician Ryan Imgrund, and student Palwashah Ali. Supplied photo/York Communities for Public Education

The number of COVID-19 cases in students and educators in York Region and across the province could be as much as 10 times higher than the statistics being tracked by the Ontario government, a Newmarket biostatistician says.

"I think that 4,000 figure is a really, really big underestimate. In my opinion, it is likely closer to 30,000 to 40,000 cases ... so far," said Ryan Imgrund of the 4,100 cases at Ontario schools currently confirmed by the province.

Imgrund, and other panellists for the York Communities for Public Education roundtable discussion Nov. 24 about the state of the education system during the pandemic, stated that things are much worse in York Region schools than the provincial government is willing to acknowledge.

Group co-chair Shameela Shakeel, a Newmarket parent, moderated a panel made up of Imgrund, Ontario NDP education critic Marit Stiles, high school math teacher Karen Ebanks, and York Region District School Board Grade 12 student Palwashah Ali.

Studies indicate only one in four COVID-19 infections is actually confirmed with testing, Imgrund said, which would mean there are about 16,000 cases among staff and students across Ontario. However, because the province is now only allowing testing at assessment centres for people with "extreme symptoms," he believes the true number is much higher. 

"When a cohort (of students) is sent home, they are sent home for 14 days, but not encouraged to get tested since they have to self-isolate for 14 days anyway. So there are even more cases that are missed," he said.

The biostatistician fumed at what he sees as the government's unwillingness to acknowledge COVID-19 transmission is taking place within schools. If it were up to him, once a school reaches three cases, there should either be a round of extensive testing, or the school should be shut down for two weeks. 

Stiles echoed the concern that the province is downplaying the extent of the problem, saying that many of the statistics touted by Education Minister Stephen Lecce are selectively used as part of a spin campaign to make the problem seem under control when it isn't.

Ali said the situation has led to a palpable climate of anxiety among York Region students.

There has been a distinct lack of clear and transparent communication with students about the situation from the government and the school boards, said Ali, as though giving students the information they need is an afterthought.

"We constantly feel like we are at the bottom of the chain. That is the sad reality. The people in authority and power who are responsible for our education are making poor decisions for us, and end up hurting our everyday lives," she said. 

"Students are already rightfully worried about our futures and what life has in store for them, and that anxiety just carries through everything."

Ali said there needs to be better support for student mental health. She acknowledged that there are services available, but they all require having students reach out to help themselves, which is a big ask.

She wants to see more proactive services where people check in on students who might be at home alone.

Ebanks said another thing the government could do to help students' well-being is to cancel this year's Education Quality and Accountability Office (EQAO) assessments for high school students. 

These provincewide exams to gauge students' literacy and math skills have already been called off for elementary students. Ebanks said her Grade 9 math students already have enough going on in their lives without the added stress of preparing for the EQAO.    

Ebanks also worried about the mental and physical health of teachers, noting that burnout among teachers was "100 per cent real."

"In secondary (schools), when we had to start looking at the hybrid model (of having both in-person and virtual classes), we had some time to get our heads around it ... But we still were not prepared for what it would do to us physically. A lot of people are losing their voices from talking for those five hours, our days are starting earlier, ending later, and we are seeing that toll," said Ebanks.

"We feel like we can't do anything properly. You don't have the full attention of your kids online, and you can't fully engage with your kids in class."

On top of that, she said, the equipment that teachers have is proving to be inadequate for the heavy use from hosting virtual classes. Her own laptop and its microphone are wearing out, and her school only has one extra computer to use if it finally breaks.  

Ebanks said more money needs to be spent on hardware, especially computers. Every teacher should also be given a headset microphone, as well.

Ebanks also noted some teachers are upset about being required to come into school buildings when they have no students there to teach, and it is contributing to the teacher shortage in Ontario.

Instead, she argued teachers should be allowed to host virtual classes from the safety of their homes if they have no students coming in for physical classes. 

Stiles concluded the discussion by saying political pressure needs to be put on the Ontario government to take a different approach to running the education system during the pandemic.

"There is an opportunity for a restart. I know that's kind of scary because we have all been through a lot of reorganization already, it has been terrible that way, and it makes everyone nervous," she said.

"But I think there are ways we can do things better, and we have talked about a lot of them here tonight. We have talked about the lessons learned. We could do this better in a way that is respectful of our students, education workers and parents."


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Alan S. Hale

About the Author: Alan S. Hale

Alan S. Hale is a reporter for NewmarketToday.ca
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