The trend that saw exposure among young people fuelling the number of COVID-19 cases throughout the summer in the York Region is changing, according to the region’s medical officer of health.
Cases are increasing in people aged over 40 across the region, which returned to a modified stage 2 on Monday as one of the province’s COVID-19 hotspots, Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council Oct. 22.
“The age groups are changing now, in that the proportion of cases in the 40 years up are going up, so this will get reflected, sadly, in terms of more individuals possibly dying,” Kurji said.
Deaths related to COVID-19 have been steadily rising in recent weeks, after a lull last summer, now accounting for 267 of York Region’s 5,895 cases as of Oct. 22.
While cases are plateauing in some areas of the province — including in Ottawa, one of the COVID hotspots also in modified stage 2 — Kurji said he doesn’t anticipate that occurring in York Region.
Ottawa, and some other municipalities in the province, have been using wastewater data to track the transmission of the virus.
Because people with COVID-19 shed the virus in their stool, the presence of viral fragments in municipal wastewater has been successfully used to predict the pace of the pandemic.
In Ontario, scientists at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario and the University of Ottawa have been at the forefront of the technique.
York Region Public Health has been working with scientists at the University of Waterloo, Kurji said; however, “our own data doesn’t suggest we are plateauing in any sense.”
The 28-day modified stage 2 started Oct. 19, however, Kurji said, “It’s a little too early to say … whether we will follow the Ottawa experience and dip down, or whether we’ll follow our usual experiences with respect to a slow burn, in which case then, the period of 28 days may not be enough to bring our numbers down.”
“I would be inclined to think the 28 days will have to be extended,” he said.
All the current numbers are up: the seven-day average for cases is more than 90; the incidence rate is up to 50 per 100,000; the testing positivity rate is over 4 per cent; outbreaks are at 52, including at three schools, 49 schools are under surveillance, and hospitalizations are increasing at the rate of one per day.
The only numbers going down are for testing.
At the peak of the pandemic, about 2,500 tests were occurring daily at the region’s three hospital assessment centres; that number has dropped to about 1,600 per day, Kurji said.
“These seem to be provincewide phenomenon after the change in testing strategy,” he added.
As of the end of September, testing at assessment centres became reserved for people with symptoms, while asymptomatic people requiring tests, such as those with loved ones in long-term care homes or close contacts of a case, could attend one of 60 pharmacies across the province.
Since the change, wait times for a test — now available by appointment only — is about five to 10 minutes, he added.
It is typically taking one to two days to get an appointment, and 96 per cent of results are being provided with 48 hours — “and that’s certainly an improvement,” Kurji said.
While rapid tests estimated to provide results in five to 15 minutes are expected to be available soon, Kurji said the province will likely first provide them to remote communities and in outbreak situations in long-term care homes.
