“Whilst I haven’t heard anything definitely … my sense is they will probably let us continue monitoring the situation for now,” Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council yesterday, Nov. 26.
“Next week will probably be a very critical week to see how our cases do because that is the ultimate indicator of where we are headed.”
While many of the indicators are trending positively since Nov. 16, when York Region moved to the red control zone of the province’s reopening framework, “wild oscillations” in single-day case counts have not been uncommon throughout the pandemic, he acknowledged.
“I think we can only be guardedly optimistic,” Kurji added.
While the region confirmed 119 new cases Wednesday, a significant dip, the numbers jumped to 168 by the end of the next day, Thursday, Nov. 26.
He’s expecting to see a decline in cases after Nov. 26 to 28, which corresponds to the 10 to 12-day COVID-19 exposure period following the move into the additional restrictions in the red control zone.
Dr. Kurji said he spoke with the province’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, on Tuesday regarding the data he would be reviewing in preparation for making his weekly recommendations to the cabinet and Premier Doug Ford regarding any changes in the zones.
Kurji said he requested that the region remain in the red control zone.
Hospitalizations had decreased in the last week, as had outbreaks in child care settings, schools and workplaces, Kurji said he told Williams.
While the presidents of York Region’s three hospitals had confirmed on Tuesday “they were coping and staying in the red zone was fine for them for the moment,” Kurji said, that situation had changed by the following day.
“On Wednesday, the situation being so fluid, they were receiving a lot more patients in their emergency rooms with COVID-19,” he said, adding that the ICU at Markham Stouffville Hospital was full that day.
The number of available beds in the region’s hospitals had decreased by mid-week, he said.
Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket currently has five COVID-19 patients in its ICU unit and eight COVID-19 patients on in-patient units, according to its website today.
The number of cases in long-term care homes across the region continue to see a steady increase.
Currently, York Region’s incidence rate remains at 81 per 100,000, the Rt is 1.2, and the testing positivity rate remains at six per cent.
Kurji said he also informed Williams of the additional restrictions through his order issued on the weekend to further control capacity in retail locations, and that a further section 22 order is ready to go out to shut down “any flagrant abusers."
