The federal election campaign is more than halfway through, with the campaigns facing the upcoming leaders debates, a vaccine verification system for Ontario and a protest in Newmarket.
NewmarketToday is checking in weekly with local political insiders and analysts for their opinions on happenings on the campaign trail.
Here is what they had to say:
Longtime labour activist Ed Chudak, NDP
Chudak said he is happy with how his party is faring in the polls, around 20 to 22 per cent.
“I still think we’re into a minority government with a strong New Democrat presence,” Chudak said.
He said Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is campaigning well with a “middle of the road” approach. But he said he takes issue with O’Toole flipping his position on gun control, going against his party platform’s to repeal measures against assault-style weapons introduced by the Liberals in 2020, to say instead there would be a process to examine gun classification.
“What I’m concerned about is that he’s trying to find the funny way to get to his position of less gun control, but do it incrementally,” Chudak said. “Some people call that smart politics, I think it’s a little bit disingenuous to try and get power.”
On the Newmarket protest
The protests that have followed Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s campaign came to Newmarket Sept. 5, as he made a campaign stop in town. Demonstrators shouted down Trudeau and opposed pandemic-related health measures, as well as faced allegations of racism from local residents in attendance.
Chudak called the demonstrations “disgusting.”
“There’s no room for what I call bully politics,” he said. “I am concerned by it. In my view, it’s neo-fascist and very, very disturbing and dangerous.”
Chudak said he is no fan of Trudeau and has organized plenty of protests in the past, but he would never yell and try to disrupt a rally.
“It’s very un-Canadian,” he said. “I’m quite disturbed by it.”
Ontario announced last week it would implement a vaccine verification system. He said most people support it, adding was disingenuous of Premier Doug Ford to say the federal government was holding up the process.
“I’m glad it's here. I just wish it was sooner,” he said.
On smaller parties
Chudak said the Green Party is struggling given the turmoil it experienced leading into the campaign. He noted Green Leader Annamie Paul has not left her Toronto riding for the campaign.
“It’s almost like a non-campaign for them,” Chudak said.
He added the Green Party struggles could benefit the NDP, as he believes most Green voters will go to them.
As for the People’s Party of Canada, he said they will always find supporters.
“There’s always going to be an ultra-right-wing of the country that supports that kind of politician.”
On the leaders debates
Leaders from the Liberal, Conservatives, NDP, Greens and Bloc Quebecois will square off in the official debates this week, with the English language debate running Sept. 9 from 9 to 11 p.m. and French debate Sept. 8 Those leaders, minus the Green Party, also debated in French on TVA Sept. 2.
Chudak said people will pay more attention to the campaign now that Labour Day is past.
“(NDP Leader) Jagmeet Singh has been performing very well,” he said. “I anticipate Mr. Trudeau is going to be attacking Mr. O’Toole at every opportunity because Mr. O’Toole is campaigning well and Mr. Trudeau has to try and regain some ground.”
Other Highlights
Chudak said he has noticed fewer campaign signs on lawns around the GTA and believes that is a sign of less engagement and a “fairly volatile election.”
He said there were no blockbuster announcements in the past week but expects that to change in the next couple of weeks.
"I’m looking forward to rabbits being pulled out of the hat."
Former Green Party candidate Walter Bauer
“The Greens are down in the polls from the last election, so that’s disappointing,” Bauer said. “We’ll see if the debate picks that up.”
He said he expects Liberals to continue with their approach, but has been “perplexed” by the early success of the Conservative campaign. He said some of the splits of the party harm their credibility.
“I use the term split-personality,” Bauer said. “Half the party seems to be against gun control, the other half is willing to do it. Half the party doesn’t believe in climate change, the other half is willing to do something about it.”
On the Newmarket protest
Bauer said he is noticing similar faces in the protests at Trudeau’s campaign stops. He questioned whether it is getting too much attention in the media.
But he said while any violence and obscenities are over the top, protesting Trudeau is fair game.
“I’m trying to think, if I was really incensed by something the government was doing, I was wondering if I would react the same way, and I might,” Bauer said.
On smaller parties
He said the current voting system is challenging for other parties.
“Without proportional representation, everybody but the Liberals and Conservatives are suffering. The current system doesn’t lend itself to fair voting,” Bauer said.
Bur Bauer said Green supporters could still make a difference, ensuring larger parties potentially lose out in a swing riding based on climate policy.
As for the People’s Party of Canada, Bauer said much of its newfound support is coming from anti-vaxxers.
“It’s going to be short-lived,” Bauer said.
On the debates
Bauer said Paul should fare well on the stage.
“She is going to punch above her weight. She is more qualified than any other candidate,” Bauer said. “She is going to stick her nose in everything that she can, so I think that will bode well for her.”
Other highlights
Bauer said the NDP hurt its credibility by not costing its released platform.
“They’ve promised everything under the sun and they haven’t cost it,” Bauer said.
Bauer said although climate change is top of people’s minds, other than the pandemic, it is not getting much attention.
“It’s not getting equal coverage,” Bauer said, adding it is third or fourth on parties' lists. “I find that a little bit perplexing.”
Public affairs and policy manager Darryl Wolk, Conservative
Wolk said any Conservative strategist would be happy with how things are playing out as the campaign winds down.
“The 905 region, including Newmarket-Aurora, has definitely seen a shift and there are close races across Peel, York, Niagara, Waterloo,” Wolk said. “That’s ultimately where races are determined provincially and federally.”
On the Newmarket protest
Wolk said there is no excuse for racism or misogyny at such protests and he is concerned they could escalate into violence if political temperatures are not reduced.
“In a democracy people have the right to express their views and protest politicians. They lose credibility when they swear, show vile signs, or intimidate others,” Wolk said.
But Wolk said Trudeau is using the protests for political gain and should evaluate his rhetoric.
He said he expects the protests could last well past the election and could target Ford’s provincial campaign next year if the pandemic continues to drag on, given Ford’s imposing of restrictions.
“Hopefully we can raise the discourse and try and find common ground on the issues and challenges we face together as a nation,” he said.
But Wolk said Ford announcing a vaccine verification system helps the Conservative campaign by removing it as a wedge issue.
On smaller parties
Wolk said he is a fan of past Green Party Leaders and it is unfortunate that internal fighting before the campaign has hurt them, given the number of topics they could draw on.
“Weather events, BC fires,” Wolk said. “Climate change would be front and centre, but it seems the Greens have shot themselves in the foot.”
Meanwhile, he said the People’s Party of Canada voters could make the difference between a Conservative minority or a majority.
“Strategic voting will determine the outcome,” Wolk said. “If People’s Party and NDP hold during voting day, I think we’ll see a minority government.”
On the debates
Wolk said nobody made a big error in the TVA debate, but Trudeau has to come up with a better answer on why he called the election, which the opposition grilled him on.
“If he doesn’t come up with an answer,” Wolk said. “His time as prime minister is over.”
He said Singh needs to continue to sway progressive voters and consolidate more of the left vote to succeed.
As for O’Toole, he said the leader must remain moderate, “giving Canadians confidence a Conservative government wouldn’t be scary, and keeping the temperature low.”
Other Highlights
Wolk said the economy is not getting enough attention in the campaign, with the Canadian economy contracting in the second quarter.
He said people are hoping the pandemic’s end could lead to an economic boom, but he is not sure that will happen.
“We’re seeing serious warning signs a recession is on the way.”
Liberal riding association president Matt Gunning
Gunning said it is going to be a close race based on the polling.
“The race is very tight, and I think we’re going to be down to the wire here to see if there’s a majority, or really a minority government either way,” Gunning said. “The Liberals are certainly going to have to stay on their message and really fight.”
On vaccine verification
Gunning said the vaccine passport is a necessary part of moving forward with COVID-19.
“It’s important to have honesty and clarity with people’s vaccination status, and it’s just not safe for people to be bringing the virus into public spaces,” Gunning said. “It’s a necessary position, and it’s unfortunate really the Ford government was so late to get into that stage.”
Ford faulted the federal government for not implementing a system at the federal level before calling an election.
“He’s got his talking points, I’m sure, from O’Toole,” Gunning said. “He still wanted to talk about why there was an election at all. That just shows Ford is out of touch."
On smaller parties
Gunning said neither party has been able to make much noise.
“I can’t even tell you a single policy position that either of them has come out for that has made any national news, or really moved the debate,” he said.
He said smaller parties can make an impact by getting their key issues into the debate. But he said the Liberals taking climate change seriously might have hurt the Greens.
Meanwhile, he said PPC Leader Maxime Bernier is “shouting with a bullhorn at the fringes of society.”
“I don’t know if there’s a lot of value in that,” Gunning said, “but he wants to be famous.”
On the debates
Gunning said the Liberals need to push on their child care policy on the debate stage, given Conservatives are proposing a tax credit instead of moving ahead with the Liberals' $10-per-day child care policy.
“A national daycare program is far more than just about child care. It’s about helping women re-enter the workforce. It’s about poverty reduction. It’s about unlocking a huge portion of our workforce,” Gunning said.
He said gun control will also be a critical point on the stage, noting O’Toole’s about-face on the Conservative platform.
“That will be an important conversation to have in front of the entire country, and really force Erin O’Toole to speak out of both sides of his mouth,” Gunning said. “They’re willing to say one thing to an audience in Alberta and a different thing to the urban communities across Ontario.”
Other highlights
Gunning said beside O’Toole’s comment, he noticed how things have changed regarding the crisis in Afghanistan.
“From where we were a week ago, Afghanistan has certainly become less of a national headline-making issue,” he said.
