It’s "a fait accompli” that York Region is heading back to a modified stage 2, which would see indoor dining at restaurants suspended while gyms, cinemas and casinos would be closed for at least 28 days, according to York Region’s medical officer of health.
With the most recent escalation in COVID-19 cases in York Region — it saw the highest daily number of cases since the pandemic began with 128 cases confirmed Oct. 14 — the region has moved from “orange zone” to “red zone” and there is a strong likelihood Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, will recommend the partial closure, Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council today.
“When I shared the information (with Williams) that we now have gone up to 128 cases, I think it was really a fait accompli, that we really don’t have much of an argument now (for) ... more monitoring,” he said.
An announcement is anticipated from the province tomorrow and could take effect as early as midnight Sunday, Oct. 18, he said.
In his daily news briefing at Queen's Park today, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that York Region is "teetering right now."
Ford said he will meet with members of the health command table this afternoon to decide if the additional restrictions are required; they would be similar to those introduced last week for Toronto, Peel and Ottawa, which suspended indoor dining and shuttered cinemas, gyms and casinos.
Williams has been closely monitoring the region, said Kurji, who has been in regular contact with him.
As well as rising case numbers, hospital capacity, incidence rates (reproductivity), and positivity rates — at 3 per cent or more indicates more local transmission is occurring — are taken into consideration.
Until yesterday, Kurji said he had been advocating for continued monitoring. Now he concurs that the situation is concerning, in particular with increasing rates of hospitalization.
“It makes me a little nervous that we may not be looking at just 28 days, we may actually be looking at a more extended period,” he said.
Several mayors and regional councillors expressed dismay about the “devastating impact” that the modified shutdown would have on local businesses, particularly restaurants, despite the fact there is no local evidence linking the rise in cases to restaurants and gyms.
While York Region Public Health does not have specific data for COVID exposure at restaurants and gyms, Kurji said, Williams is referring to a case study that indicates indoor restaurant patrons are 2.89 times more likely to be exposed to COVID, as well as experiences in other jurisdictions, as validation for suspending indoor dining.
However, he added the majority of York Region restaurants are abiding by the rules.
“We have not got any concrete evidence to suggest that COVID is being transmitted through restaurants. That having been said, more recently, our ability to get this concrete information has been blunted given the large number of cases coming at us,” Kurji said. “We have been prioritizing getting to the close contacts over trying to get a very detailed analysis of the exposures.”
Stouffville Mayor Iain Lovatt said, “There needs to be some consideration taken to our local entrepreneurs who I don’t think are going to survive another 28-day closure. My call to the province is that we’re going to have to help, or we’re going to lose our mom and pop restaurants on our Main Streets and in our communities and that is just devastating for all of us, especially them.”
Newmarket Mayor John Taylor acknowledged the concerning impact of a return to restrictions, but said health experts are making the recommendation based on longer-term modelling.
“If you watch the trendlines, we’ve got ICU patients back at Southlake, the cases are climbing, the reproduction rate tells you where the numbers are going. We can practically picture where we’re going to be in three to four weeks. We can wait till then, and have an even more serious case, and a harder time to get it back under control and longer impacts,” he said.
Richmond Hill Regional Councillor Carmine Perrelli said he opposed the return to restrictions “without a clear delineated goal”, given the irreversible negative impact he says it will have on the economy.
“The reality is, moving forward, we’re going to have these types of situations. Whether we call it influenza or COVID-19, these types of viral infections will always be around," said Perrelli.
"As long as we’re prepared and know how to protect ourselves, I think it’s time we move toward opening up completely and letting everyone protect themselves as they see fit. I don’t believe at this stage of the pandemic there’s more that the government should interfere with.”
